[andyt]

Alaska has been much more affected by climate change, increased temps. They are having huge forest fires, which of course releases lots of carbon. The fires are burning so hot, they are melting the permafrost, which means a lot of methane is released, further increasing any warming effect.

[Zipperfish]

andyt andyt:

Alaska has been much more affected by climate change, increased temps. They are having huge forest fires, which of course releases lots of carbon. The fires are burning so hot, they are melting the permafrost, which means a lot of methane is released, further increasing any warming effect.

In ecomic terms, the US is looking at a bill of several hundred million dollars relocating Alaskan villages trheatened by climate change there. 85% of coatsal comomunities are threatened.

[N_Fiddledog]

The way I heard the story in Alaska there was this ocean influence (sometimes called the great Pacific climate shift) from the late 70s sometime lasting into the early 2000s. Since that time if the area has been trending in any direction it's towards cooling.

Is that not correct?

Are these horrors of warming in Alaska you guys speak of current? Show me.

I'm pretty sure I've seen records up to 2012 showing cooling in Alaska from the beginning of the century. Did something happen after that?

[DrCaleb]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Are these horrors of warming in Alaska you guys speak of current? Show me.

I'm pretty sure I've seen records up to 2012 showing cooling in Alaska from the beginning of the century. Did something happen after that?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/1 ... 96516.html

I'd like to see those records you speak of.

[N_Fiddledog]

That's it? Beach erosion? That's your evidence carbon dioxide has been pushing temperatures up to catastrophic never seen before levels in Alaska since 2000?

As to what I've seen. Go here -

http://wattsupwiththat.com/

Type "Alaska" in the search bar.

I'm pretty sure you won't have to click far to see what I'm talking about. There's graphs, I know. Better you should see them in their base context to know if they meet your approval.

Hey, fair's fair. I've suffered through Unskeptical Science-y and Unscientific UnAmerican from your guys' links.

[DrCaleb]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

That's it? Beach erosion? That's your evidence carbon dioxide has been pushing temperatures up to catastrophic never seen before levels in Alaska since 2000?

Erosion from rising water is just a symptom. How about increased wildfires from the warm, dry winters?



http://www.climatecentral.org/news/alas ... ires-19146

Fires that expose the permafrost to faster melting:



http://www.npr.org/2015/07/27/426595377 ... rbons-thaw



http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/permafrost.shtml

And lakes that are shrinking from the drying weather.



http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impact ... laska.html

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

As to what I've seen. Go here -

http://wattsupwiththat.com/

Type "Alaska" in the search bar.

I'm pretty sure you won't have to click far to see what I'm talking about. There's graphs, I know. Better you should see them in their base context to know if they meet your approval.

Hey, fair's fair. I've suffered through Unskeptical Science-y and Unscientific UnAmerican from your guys' links.

And nothing that came up about this mythical 'Alaskan Cooling' you were writing about.

[DrCaleb]

Or, we could so the old 'temperature measurement' thing, from Fairbanks.



http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Location

http://akclimate.org/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html

http://www.livescience.com/25907-alaska ... e-pdo.html

I'm really interested in these 'cooling Alaska' numbers you wrote about. I wonder how so many scientists got it so very nrwong!

[BartSimpson]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/1 ... 96516.html

I'd like to see those records you speak of.

Building your house on sand is never a good idea. People knew this 2,000 years ago.

$1:

...will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand. And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell, and great was the fall of it.

[Zipperfish]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

The way I heard the story in Alaska there was this ocean influence (sometimes called the great Pacific climate shift) from the late 70s sometime lasting into the early 2000s. Since that time if the area has been trending in any direction it's towards cooling.

Is that not correct?

Are these horrors of warming in Alaska you guys speak of current? Show me.

I'm pretty sure I've seen records up to 2012 showing cooling in Alaska from the beginning of the century. Did something happen after that?

I don't think anywhere north of the Arctic circle is trending towards cooling. Alaska is warming at twice the national average of the US.

Here's a recent article:

http://www.adn.com/article/20150807/appeals-panel-sides-new-newtok-council-easing-village-move

There's lots of others.

Here's the trend according to the Alaska Climate Research Center:

[N_Fiddledog]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

And nothing that came up about this mythical 'Alaskan Cooling' you were writing about.

Sorry about that. I forgot about the Progressive tick that closes eyes and ears when they get close to contradictory information.

OK, so I can't help you, but for anybody else who might be interested, here's what I was talking about.

$1:

It’s easy to see when and why Alaskan surface air temperatures warmed. Based on linear trends of the recently released CRUTEM4 data, land surface air temperature anomalies were relatively flat in Alaska from 1900 to 1975, and from 1977 to present, they’re flat again. Between those two periods was the Pacific Climate Shift of 1976, which, in effect, raised Alaska land surface air temperature anomalies in the neighborhood of 1 deg C. See Figures 1 and 2.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/27/m ... nomaliess/

More specifically, see what happened after 2000? That's specifically the cooling I mentioned.

IF it's still not clear, try this newspaper report which I found as a link from Watt's.

What global warming? Alaska is headed for an ice age as scientists report state's steady temperature decline

$1:

New research from the Alaska Climate Research Center shows that since the beginning of the 21st century, temperatures in the snow covered land of Alaska are actually getting colder - bucking the overall global warming trend.

In the Last Frontier, where temperatures can get as cold as 50 degrees below zero, local residents have experienced the increasing chill and scientists now confirm that the Northwest state is indeed seeing a temperature drop.

A new report from the research center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks reveals that the 49th state of the union has cooled by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 2000.

So if it's actually been cooling in Alaska since 2100 what's your point. You can find pictures and blame warm weather?

So what? Here's a picture of a newspaper article from from 1934 talking about how Wrangel Alaska set its warm weather record of 100 degrees fahrenheit. Perhaps there was a permafrost sink hole or two back then. Ya think?

The article on Doc linked to with a scary prediction of sink holes from permafrost melt was a computer model prediction. Click the link above from Watt's if you want to see how accurate those have been. (not very, and that was back-casting temperatures when they already knew the results, I thing).

Now as to recent wildfires in Alaska. I don't know how reliabel the graphs above are, but what they did not show was cause.

For example here's an area in Alaska where they talk about recent wildfires and their causes.

$1:

As firefighters worked to bring the Sockeye fire under control, officials reported Saturday that more than 80 new fires had ignited in Alaska over two days, a mix of lightning- and human-caused blazes. In Alaska's eastern Interior, one lightning-sparked fire had reached 30,000 acres.

On Saturday alone, there were 6,500 recorded lightning strikes in the state, said Tim Mowry, spokesman for the Alaska Division of Forestry.

“It’s been a big lightning day,” Mowry said. There were 4,500 strikes on Friday, he said.

Most of the new fires sparked north of the Alaska Range, Mowry said, though the blazes were widespread throughout the state.

Of 45 new fires on Saturday, about a quarter were human-caused, Mowry said. He said that number was disappointing.

http://www.adn.com/article/20150620/soc ... 53-percent

Show me the literature that offers Carbon Dioxide as cause for increased lightning strikes, or human activity.

[N_Fiddledog]

Yeah Zip, I've seen that graph. It was at Watts, but it was only current to 2013. That's why I was asking if something happened after that. 2014 looks pretty radical, all right.

But, don't play dumb. I know you what I mean when I talk about the great pacific climate shift. We've discussed it before.

So my point was Alaska cooled after the Pacific Climate Shift. I didn't see 2014, but if you were going to graph a trend from after the climate shift, I'm not sure 2014 would change it.

Now as to erosion in native villages, yes, that's something people like to write about, and have since Gore sparked the global warming stampede to hysteria.

So yes, much has been written about it. I read an interesting one on the subject one time. It talked about cases where natives were told not to build, because there was a danger of erosion. They did anyway, then they expected government to bring dollars to move their village, or repair the damage where they were.

Turns out there are areas where danger of erosion exists and always has. I know...crazy, right?

BTW, we do remember 2014 was an El Nino year, right?

[Zipperfish]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

So if it's actually been cooling in Alaska since 2100 what's your point. You can find pictures and blame warm weather?

It hasn't been cooling in Alaska. Take a look at the graph from the Alaska Climatic Research Center that I posted above, which shows more recent data than the your graph from WUWT. 2014 was the warmest year on record by a pretty significant margin. 2015 is also warm.

The WUWT is the old cherry picking routine. Take a local maximum (the switch to positive PDO around 1976), and start measuring from there.

$1:

So yes, much has been written about it. I read an interesting one on the subject one time. It talked about cases where natives were told not to build, because there was a danger of erosion. They did anyway, then they expected government to bring dollars to move their village, or repair the damage where they were.

Erosion is accelerating due to the fact that the shorelines are not as protected by sea ice as they used to be. The natives settled many of these areas because that is where the government built the schools. They were nomadic ion pre-contact days.

Again, the ersion is not because of climate change, it is exacerbated by claimate change.

[N_Fiddledog]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

It hasn't been cooling in Alaska. Take a look at the graph from the Alaska Climatic Research Center that I posted above, which shows more recent data than the your graph from WUWT. 2014 was the warmest year on record by a pretty significant margin. 2015 is also warm.

I specifically said I hadn't heard the data on the recent years and asked for them. You produced one, so thank you, but it's just an anomalous El Nino year. El Nino's have nothing to do with CO2.

$1:

The WUWT is the old cherry picking routine. Take a local maximum (the switch to positive PDO around 1976), and start measuring from there.

I don't believe you don't see both graphs are showing the same thing. You're mind gaming me.

There's a step level at about 79 when the Pacific Climate Shift begins on both graphs. Then things level out, but if you cut your graph further with your eye you can see a probable cooling after 94 (it's definite on mine) and a definite short burst of cooling after 2003 on yours and mine.

And if you had checked out the other link I gave you from the Daily Mail you would have seen the report they reference uses the same source you did for their graph (Alaska Climate Research), except they only had data to 2010.

Here's the quote from the article.

$1:

New research from the Alaska Climate Research Center shows that since the beginning of the 21st century, temperatures in the snow covered land of Alaska are actually getting colder - bucking the overall global warming trend.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... cline.html

It's true they didn't know about the El Nino year of 2014 at the time. I'll give you that one. If that's real and not a modeled projection that's an impressive El Nino effect in 2014. I'll believe 2015 when I see it, but La Ninas generally follow El Ninos, don't they? So don't get cocky.

[N_Fiddledog]

As to sea ice I wouldn't worry this year. Looks fine so far and only a month to go.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

[DrCaleb]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Sorry about that. I forgot about the Progressive tick that closes eyes and ears when they get close to contradictory information.

OK, so I can't help you, but for anybody else who might be interested, here's what I was talking about.

I think you mistook 'contradictory' with 'non-existant'.

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

The article on Doc linked to with a scary prediction of sink holes from permafrost melt was a computer model prediction.

You know, those were actual photographs of permafrost melt and sink holes, right? Not predictions, actual events. But, just put your fingers in your ears and go "LA LA LA LA" some more.

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Now as to recent wildfires in Alaska. I don't know how reliabel the graphs above are, but what they did not show was cause.

Cause is irrelevant. The effects are the same whatever the cause, and the lack of moisture is still the driving factor.

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Show me the literature that offers Carbon Dioxide as cause for increased lightning strikes, or human activity.

Perhaps you'd also like to discuss the price of bobbleheads from China and their relationship to the price of Arabica coffee?